How I think about technology phases
Or my current thoughts on AI, the Metaverse, Blockchain, and more
Here's how I'm currently thinking about a variety of technologies and general technology opportunities right now:
A. AI (currently) allows for automation & simplification of human-computer communication. With intelligent human guidance, it can already do many basic knowledge tasks.
B. Metaverse -- or rather AR & VR -- allow for new sensory & augmented human experiences. If it can be imagined, it can be (visually & auditorily) experienced.
C. Blockchain allows things to be decentralized, programmatically check ownership, & enforce some basic ownership rights via software. Software can be the 3rd party enforcer or validator for many transactions.
D. Smartphones allow you have access to most of the things on this list 24/7 from pretty much any location.
E. Social allows you to tap into whatever topics are currently circulating around the hive mind (it's also great training data for LLMs to better understand the current context of the world & social opinions)
F. Texting allows you to have asynchronous, semi-private, conversations.
G. The larger web allows you to tap into the massive datastore of human thought & historical knowledge (great training data for LLMs to better understand human language & up-to-date knowledge).
H. Email provides very cheap content distribution to any size audience, with a feel of personal & direct communication.
There are of course many more technologies & trends I didn't mention, but these are what I currently consider the really big 'paradigm shifting' phases I've seen and experienced throughout my career (so far).
And ultimately you can mix-n-match all of these things in lots of different and interesting ways to accomplish many different things that either weren't possible previously or at least required a lot of human energy/effort/expertise in the past (and are now much more widely available, affordable, & achievable by a large percentage of people).
So it remains a very exciting time to be alive. Things continue to get easier, faster, and cheaper. You truly are only limited by your imagination & determination.
But things also continue to move fast & change daily. At times it can feel like you're really just chasing the next thing, caught up in the hype cycle, and always at least one step behind.
But the secret isn't to focus on the hot new technology or trend.
Instead focus on the solutions they may now unlock (for the real problems you are actually trying to solve). If the newest phase doesn't drastically move the needle for your problem set, then it's not worth focusing on right now.
It's always good to pay attention to the general powers new technology trends unlock, but do so with an eye towards always staying focused on what you're trying to solve for your customer.
If you do that, it will always be much more clear on if, how, when, and why a new technology phase might be worth your attention.